tis the season

So it's been a while since I posted. Don Brash called it quits (good), John Key got the top at National (good for national) and Eden Park got the go-ahead, maybe... if something better comes along, maybe not... (so long at it's not bloody Albany).

And I left the sunny slopes of Mt Eden, for the sea views (glimpses... if you stand on a chair) and trendy takeaways of Parnell (not that anywhere can really compare to Boonchu).

And now it's Christmas time once again, which means a likely sign off for the year. Have a good time all, and merry Christmas.

short sighted

I am a little disappointed in the ARC for dismissing the waterfront stadium as an option. Eden Park is far from the best option as far as I'm concerned, and not worth the $385 million required to get it built. I also don't see a problem in investing a truckload of money the country's largest port - free to the ARC - in making it more space and cost efficient.

I do see a problem in the ARC saying we won't take your money for the Waterfront Stadium, or for investing in the Ports of Auckland, but we sure as hell won't pay for Eden Park either.

the ARC believes that any alternative to the Waterfront Stadium would be a national stadium and should be funded for both capital and operating costs, without reliance on Auckland Regional Council ratepayers.

I agree with the Herald editorial this morning, the 'City council vote should prevail'.

driving with blinkers

In today's Herald, Brian Rudman likens Steve Maharey - and the government - to George W Bush:

Auckland is fast becoming Wellington's Iraq. If we're not stoning Sports Minister Trevor Mallard for his waterfront stadium plan, we're up in arms about Government plans to make us pay tolls to finance highways that the rest of the country gets for free.

Ouch. For one, I'm not not resorting to violence over the waterfront option, and the government isn't yet making anyone pay tolls.

He goes on to claim that:

It's hard, though, to go past the fact that Auckland has long been cheated of its share of transport cash.The proportion has improved in recent years, but in the 2005 financial year, the Auckland region scored only 29 per cent of Land Transport New Zealand funding, although 34 per cent of New Zealanders live in the region.
Why should we have to pay more?

Which isn't really true. Auckland's transport spent was woeful in the 1990's, but so was everyone else's. But we haven't been cheated of dosh from the public kitty. Brian's statistical claims have several problems.

Firstly, Land Transport New Zealand are the people who do the road safety commercials, run our licensing and other peripheral matters. They have nothing to do with road funding.

Secondly, the statistics that Brian is referring to are these ones [PDF], which refer to total road funding, including Transit (the people who build and maintain roads) and Land Transport NZ.

They reveal that:

- Auckland has the highest spend per km of road ($1410 per km, versus 2nd place Wellington at $521 per km)
- Auckland has the 4th highest spend per capita, with the Waikato, Southland and Northland ahead.
- When excluding costs not allocated to any region, Auckland gets 33.6% of the funding versus 32% of population and a contribution of 31.6% to GDP.
- Including costs not allocated to any region(inc. paper pushing in Wellington, TV ads etc), Auckland has a 29% share of transport funding. The 2005 figures indicate that Auckalnd had a $245m spend on highways, and another $941m spend on highways that hadn't been allocated to any region. I suspect that a significant amount of that money went to Auckland and more still into work on SH1 in and out of Auckland.

over shining sea

So, Tauranga MP Bob Clarkson has decided that the waterfront stadium will cost $1.8 billion dollars. He bases his estimate on his dabbling with stadia building in Tauranga, where according do the Stuff

"The only MP to have experience in building a stadium ... (a) >20,000-seater which came in $1 million over budget at a cost of $21 million."

Gee, wish I could do that with my salary. I also seem to remember another National MP having something to do with, oh, this building, which with some squinting and a vivid imagination kinda looks like a stadium.

Using Stadium NZ as a shining example of NZ's clean green image would also be great. Might even get the greens in behind it. In fact, the more I think about it the few million dollars it'd cost to make the stadium carbon/emissions positive is well worth it - so long as it stays as good looking as this.

And RB is right - the couple that moved in next to a container port and now are complaining about their view possibly going. It's a bit rich to claim that 25000 people will have their views of the harbour blocked by the stadium. I'd be surprised if the number is larger than 100.

It's now time for our say, though. You can tell Mike, Dick and Trevor what you think here. I think the waterfront is the best option, and really hoping Auckland does too.

stadium new zealand images

Images from architecture firm Warren and Mahoney for the proposed stadium on the waterfront. I had a bit of trouble downloading images from here, so have posted them for all to drool/lament over.

City View:


Harbour View Day:


Harbour View Night


City Elevation:


Harbour Elevation:


Level 2 View:


Rugby Configuration:


Cricket Configuration:


Concert Configuration:

get it done

The people of Auckland have been given two choices, and only two choices, for the location of the stadium that will host the final of the Rugby World cup. And what do we do?

We complain.

City councillors complain they don't get Carlaw Park as an option, Kerre Woodham complains about it not being sorted earlier, Brian Rudman complains, and complains, and complains.

Can we please start looking at what we actually want, and how it can be done, rather than niggle over the technicalities of it all. If we complain any longer, we'll only have ourselves to blame when it goes belly up.

While I would have supported Carlaw Park, it's not going to fly. My bet is now on the waterfront. It's a far superior option to an Eden Park upgrade, and - as Tim Watkins asserts, it's doable. To all the naysayers, I say this:
- The port will cope without the space AND we have Tauranga to help out as well.
- It'll be 20 years before something interesting is done with the waterfront if this doesn't go ahead.
- So what, it blocks the view to the water. You can't see the water now, we will be able to walk around the stadium to see the water (can't do that now), and it'll block the view of the port as an added bonus.

So, can we have a decision please?

how to vote

A good night for the Democrats. California Democrat Nancy Pelosi, set to become the first female Speaker of the House, laid down a challenge to the White House - "Mr. President, we need a new direction in Iraq." - and to Washington D.C in general, promising to clean up the 109th Congress, which Rolling Stone dubbed the worst ever. Video of Pelosi's victory speech is here.

Meanwhile, we don't yet know who the next Senate Pro Tem will be, but current results have the Democrats+Independents in the lead by a small sliver. With Senate seats from Montana and Virginia still 'too close to call', it's hard to say if we'll have a result soon, or we'll be forced to wait through recounts and legal battles. According to Fox News (!!)

There are no automatic recounts in Virginia, but state law allows a candidate who finishes a half-percentage point or less behind to request a recount paid for by state and local governments

and with less than a percentage point in the race, it wouldn't be advisable to hold ones breath. Scoop, however, was much more confident.

On the ticket in some states were referenda to pass laws, including:
- Arizona: YES on English as the official language.
- Colorado: NO on Legalise Marijuana
- Idaho: YES on Ban Same Sex Marriage
- Michigan: YES on Restrict Affirmative Action
- Missouri: Yes on Stem Cell Research
- Nevada: NO on Legalise Marijuana
- Ohio: No on Allow Slot Machines
- South Dakota: NO on Ban Abortion
- Arizona: TOO CLOSE TO CALL on Ban on Same Sex Marriage
- Colorado: YES on Ban on Same Sex Marriage
- South Carolina: YES on Ban Same Sex Marriage
- South Dakota: YES on Ban Same Sex Marriage
- Tennessee: YES on Ban Same Sex Marriage
- Virginia: YES on Ban Same Sex Marriage
- Wisconsin: YES on Ban Same Sex Marriage

Thankfully the ultra hard-line, dumbass and patronising abortion laws were rejected by the voters, but shame on those states banning Same Sex Marriage. In a lot of ways, America really needs to just grow up.

how not to vote

A few days ago HBO screened a doco in the leadup to today's US midterm elections, covering the controversy surrounding electronic voting machines in the US. Makes me quite glad of our cardboard booths and funky orange markers.

Well worth the watch if you're interested in such things.

on the wharf

Cabinet today deferred making a decision about the location of Auckland's new stadium, but we should have some goodies by Friday including, according to 3 News, designs from the architects Warren and Mahoney. It looks likely it'll be the waterfront option.

3 News has a roundup here.

I'm keen to see the designs - partly because I agree that the design in media circulation looks like a bedpan - partly because I want to see what the architects think the surrounds will look like. I want more to see boldness, creativity, detail and justification for the design. But above all, I want to see options. If this is truly to be a national stadium, the best minds all need to be working to think of concepts for the stadium. Some will be uninspiring, some will be over the top, but there'll be gems to find if we let NZ's architects loose on designing our stadium.

We can but hope...

under the mountain, over the water

It's game on - so to speak - in the race to decide where to play the final match of the 2011 Rugby World Cup. In the pursuit of a single game of rugby - albeit a very important game - the government charmed the pants off the IRB, promising to rebuild Eden Park to bring it up to scratch for the final. Out of the woodwork though, new proposals for stadia have springed up, variously hailing their location as superior to leafy Mt Eden.

Left now in the hands of whatever politician wants to pay for it, the cards are on the table. But with no formal public consultation process on what we think it the best option for the stadium, no place to vent our praise or frustration at whats on offer, who knows what we'll end up with. Maybe the majority of Aucklanders want a mutli-billion dollar stadium floating off the shores of Remuera, and are prepared to pay for it, but nobody would know because they haven't properly asked anyone.

For now, you'll have to do with my efforts to bring together the various options.

Eden Park Upgrade

Envisioned for the current site of Eden Park is a $320 million upgrade of the park, including new stands to take a total of 60,000 people, 38000 of whom can enjoy their favourite sport undercover. The plan will enhance the facility for patrons and neighbours alike - with areas for people to stuff around before and after the game, linking the park with Kingsland railway station before and after the game. Plus the new stands will do a better job of containing light and noise spill (if only they could keep the helicopter quiet as it circles the park). Not to mention a pretty entrance from Sandringham Road









Cost: $320 million
Pros: Cheap(!), does the job, improves existing site, railway station adjacent.
Cons: Not 'visionary', very little parking, poor motorway access, seats not very close to stadium, no roof, limited amount of fixtures per year, suburban area.
Pictures: Eden Park Website.

Bledisloe Wharf / Tank Farm
No pretty designs yet, but the stadium by the water idea has captivated the government as worth of consideration. Potentially the crowning jewel on Auckland's waterfront, the design will be a very hot issue, lest it turn out to look like Wellington's Cake Tin. Sydney hit a winner with their Opera House, so there is no reason for us not to be able to do it. So long as it's not designed by committee. Te Papa was panned as a monstrosity when it opened, but today looking at it (and surrounds), it really is a striking building that seems to feel at home in Wellington.

Either site potentially will provide a bookend to a rejuvenated waterfront area, placing much needed fireworks up the ARC and City Council to get on and turn the area into a place of civic pride. I'm not holding my breath, however.

Being a greenfields development, the stadium can also be whatever we want it to be. We can forget dithering around with boring design constrained by existing facilities and build a stadium with all the bells and whistles that a millionaire city deserves.

Cost: Hopefully less than $1billion.
Pros: Exciting opportunity to do something bloody fantastic for the City, away from suburbia, it can have a roof, host wider variety of events more frequently, close to Brittomart.
Cons: $$$$, getting it done in time.


Carlaw Park
City Councillor Richard Simpson recently corresponded with RB around using the dilapidated Carlaw Park, at the city edge of the Domain, for the stadium. His surprisingly passionate PowerPoint, outlines his vision for the park.

This is my favourite for the stadium, practically being a greenfields site, having the best potential for public transport and greater use as a multi site venue.

As Cr. Simpson points out, if it's covered the Carlaw Park option can serve as a wet weather alternative for activities in the Domain.

I'd go further and insist that if we were to build a stadium here, it'd have to be covered - partly because if we don't cover the next stadium we build, Auckland will never have a covered stadium of it's size, partly because it rains all the time here and partly because Parnell residents are close by, and having this as a concert venue would rock.

And carparks... lots of lovely carparks to use when vising the Domain, Parnell and the University. Carlaw park has this over most of the other locations around - it and it's facilities will be used 7 days a week by Aucklanders of all persuasions. Eden Park wont.




Cost: ???, possibly up to $1b
Pros: Great use of crappy area, close to SH16 and railway network, close to CBD
Cons: $$$$, getting it done in time.

Images: Cr. Richard Simpson & wises (via Public Address)

Stadium Over Water
This has to be the most visionary of proposals yet. It has style, it has viable public transport options, it has longevity, and it has oodles of space. The elegant design of the stadium really is something we can admire, and can admire in 50 or 100 years. Even if this isn't the site, the architects who came up with the plan must be the architects to design the new stadium.

Peter Bossley and Bary Copeland - the pair behind the plan - are touting their proposal as a National Stadium, and setting their sights high to match.

If I didn't have a fondness for Central Auckland, this would definitely be my favourite.












They key advantages, according to the pair are:

- The site over water is a “blank canvas.” ... does not have to be purchased, existing facilities demolished, or the impact considered on surrounding buildings;

- It is close to a major transport corridor, with easy access to rail, motorways and Auckland International Airport;

- It is close to one of the fastest growing regions in Auckland: Counties and Manakau

- The close proximity to major transport connections and the relative lack of site restrictions will assist with the intended completion of the purpose-designed world class stadium in time for the Rugby World Cup in 2011.

They also put their case forward in the Herald, outlting the practical features of the stadium, as well as the asthtetic

Sunlight reflecting off the sea would animate the sloping sides of the bowl, making it an object of great beauty and lightness. Artificial lighting would make it a dramatic object appearing to float over the water.

Cost: ???
Pros: Visionary, close to SH1 and railway network, potential to grow despt onclick="BLOG_clickHandler(this)" class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_44">ressed area, leaves waterfront free for other things
Cons: $$$$, away from city, tsunami prone.
Images: Bossley Copeland Architects (via Scoop)

North Harbour Stadium
Mostly called for by reistdents north of the bridge, no serious proposal has been put forward so far. Some reports however, mark this as very cheap.

Cost: $200-250m.
Pros: Lots of space for development, less residents, motorway adjacent.
Cons: Too far from Manakau city, no rail access, traffic nightmarish already, plans to expand commerical and residential development in area, sports teams with North Harbour as home ground tend to loose a lot.

Mt Smart
Again, has no serious push behind it. Shares most of the cons of Mt Eden and North Harbour, without taking too many of the pros. Current stadium is mega ugly, so could do with a facelift though

Avondale Racetrack
Ditto, plus they have those horrible spiders.

Victoria Park
Or, we could sober up and not.

As we wait for the Government to make up it's mind, we'll just have to twiddle our thumbs and hope they come up with something good.

trade aid

In response to my post on global white band day, iiq responded that people can,

Help to make a difference to poverty from lack of free trade and choices.

Agreed.

The distinction between free trade and fair trade is important when considering third world countries. People trade and nations trade - rather, all people and all nations trade in different ways and at differing levels of status. Googling Fair Trade will get heaps of info on the minutiae I'm sure - but IMHO, China's the problem.

The astonishingly low prices that an item can be made for in China is just nuts (take the NZ price, divide it by 8 and that's the cost in US dollars to get it made, packaged AND to a port of your choice in China). Global trade has to be about open access (USA and EU not doing very well) and reasonable prices paid for goods. The price of Chinese goods is, simply, too low. The single biggest action any government can take to make fair trade happen is for China to float the Yuan.

I suspect that, unfortunately, would cause a global financial crisis. I don't know the answer to that whopping problem.

The depressing reality is that global poverty isn't going to end in my lifetime. Prove me wrong and I'll be happy - but I'm not wrong on this one.

NGO's like Oxfam, and campaigns like Make Poverty History will make a difference - but only to some, and only slowly. It doesn't mean that individual actions should be ignored as irrelevant. It's up to consumers to make change happen slowly with their wallets. It's hard to make those choices - in fact it's a bitch (Foodtown Mt Eden, in particular, should be able to keep Scarborough Fair coffee in stock more often).

white bands

Tomorrow is global white band day, the big push so to speak for the Make Poverty History Campaign. Idiot/Savant provides a to the point summary of how NZ is doing here - and it's not good news.

I'm not sure where you can get a white band offline, but if you're keen on getting one delivered to you after Tuesday, look here. Otherwise, anything white is a sign of solidarity. Otherwise, reconsider that donation to cover Labour's misspend, donate here instead - and then tell the PM about it.

aect

Handing my cheque to the teller last weekend made me reflect on the good things about living in central Auckland. In particular,

• There are banks that open on Sundays
• Once a year, the people who run the company that takes my money year round gives some of it back.

And the teller got to add to her growing pile my cheque from the Auckland Energy Consumer's Trust. Well, I'm sure she wasn't that thrilled - it was a big pile, and apparently was even larger the previous weekend. I hope she got one too, and didn't get it stolen.

Also, it's another good reason not to live on the Shore - you don't get a cheque on the Shore. Add that to the list... the roads are laid out in an incredibly stupid way... nobody can drive properly (about as bad as Ponsonby Road drivers) .... peak traffic in Albany South...

I quite like the AECT/Vector model. It's public ownership of a key asset without the political landmines that SOEs can bring, combined with a corporate model that is that maximises the return and value of assets to the owners. This year the trustees of the AECT are up for election.

Matt McCarten writing in the HoS, gives his personal precis of the three candidate blocks. It's unsurprising that he favours the left candidates over the current right wing bloc who sold a quarter of the company. McCarten notes the hypocrisy of those candidates who promised to keep the company in the Trust's hands, before doing the opposite. He predicts that

if the right-wing politicians grab control in this election, it won't be long before Vector assets of nearly $6 billion go on the international auction block. Of course, the corporation that buys Vector then ups the price to a captive customer base to pay off the loan raised to buy it. The new foreign owner makes a bomb, the foreign bank makes a bomb, and the local people pay the bill.

I don't think the decision to sell a quarter of the company was necessarily incorrect - at least from a corporate point of view. Vector is the best placed power company in the country, having the best market helps with that, but also having as your only shareholder a Trust - asking only for a consistent level of profit - has enabled Vector to leverage its revenue to grow. But to grow past a certain point needs money - and the AECT isn't in a position to demand cash from it's beneficiaries. The float helped Vector expand, and that move paid off. The fact that the dividend was significantly larger than what it had been in previous years is testament to that.

However, I don't think more should be sold off. Having more than a quarter of your shares floating in the market is a risk from governance point of view. In fact, I think it folly for the dividend to be so large. The AECT not only has a responsibility to deliver short term dividends to its beneficiaries, but a long term obligation to retain the company in public ownership and grow its profitability over time. Part of that money could have been used to reinvest in the company, in exchange for more shares, or to buy back some of the shares in the market to increase its asset base.

McCarten's article is a must read for everyone in who is eligible to vote for the trustee election - even if you are on the right of the spectrum. I don't think we're going to see another article that summarises what's at stake. Most importantly, everyone who can vote should. You can't whinge if you didn't.

dear bomb

I think DPF summed it up best with

This is not a good thing at all. This is very bad, and there will be consequences down the road.

North Korea today issued the a statement claiming that they had

successfully conducted an underground nuclear test under secure conditions on October 9, 2006

adding that the test

will contribute to defending the peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in the area around it

I'm not holding my breath.

The msm are variously reporting that the test took place at either the Yongbyon nuclear facility, located 100km north of Pyongyang, or at Hwadaeri (CNN citing Hwaderi, a place that doesn't exist) near Kilju City, while seismic data indiicated the only activity of it's type today located here.

I'd like to say that I hope this is just North Korea puffing itself up with lies, but - like others - I'm scared of not only the crazy North Korean leadership, but of how their neighbours and the world reacts. We haven't had any problems out of India and Pakistan yet, granted, but I'm not as confident with Kim Jong IL behind the wheel.

Big discussion over at Kiwiblog - Matthew Webster has a good summary of the problems with both military and economic solutions, concluding that

I think its pretty close to an intractable problem, internationally speaking, and it maybe that this problem is only "solved" (in as much as is possible here) by the reactions of countries who feel their security is threatened.

shiny & new

So I've spent a very long time updating the design of the blog rather than any real work or useful posts - mostly because of the change to blogger in beta - which was worth it, but if you want to do anything remotely interesting with your blog, set aside the weekend.

(n.b. the change is really done in two stages, one to shift everything over, the second to update the template. It's the template change that can take a while if you like a custom template)

Also put some shiny new pictures from around Auckland to liven things up a bit in the header. Ooooh...

And to give credit where it's due (esp if you're after the funky drop down label box), here is the copyright & credit notice from the HEAD section of the blog template.

---
urbancast.blogspot.com (c) 2006

Images & text (c) 2006

Template based on Minima by Douglas Bowman (www.stopdesign.com) 26 Feb 04, updated by Blogger team and modified by urbancast with (hacked) labels hack from hackosphere.blogspot.com
---

wage inflation

After calling for employers to exercise moderation in giving wage and salary increases, the Reserve Bank's wage bill has grown by 18% in the last year. The Herald points out that the rise

takes into account a rise in staff numbers to 223 full-time equivalents from 218 in 2004/5, it still represents a 15.4 per cent average rise in remuneration per employee to $96,860 from $83,944.

Which, compared to the NZ Income Survey is well above the 4% pay rise given to the average worker this year. In real terms, the average wage is only just keeping in line with inflation, the CPI for the year to June 06 was 4%.

That the RBNZ isn't keeping inflating between 1-3% - missing it's targets - clearly doesn't have any relation to how the reward their staff. It demonstrates that workers at the top end of the wage spectrum are treated spectacularly differently from those at the bottom. As the RBNZ forks out 15% extra for their staff without blinking, those wanting just over half that are punished for daring to suggest it.

Interesting to note also, from the Income Survey that while females still lag behind their men on average incomes ($473 for women vs $754 for men av p/w), they are closing the gap faster than they have for many years (up 7.1% for women vs 2.1% for men). Let's hope it's even closer next year.

exclusive nonsesnse

What I don't get about the the Exclusive Brethren's exemption to labour laws is this:

If you run a business in New Zealand, it's safe to assume that you're going to have contact with people who you disagree with politically and religiously. Some of your employees and contractors will hold different beliefs, the employees of your suppliers are bound to be of different faiths - especially if you source raw materials offshore (i.e. China) - AND they're going to change as people leave. Customers in particular - regardless of whether you are a wholesaler or retailer - are going to be varied to a very strong degree.

So it's fine for the Church to insist that it's members not associate with outsiders, that they lobby (to outsiders) for laws allow for them to be treated above the law, but if they need to make money, all that doesn't matter. Preventing your followers from accessing modern civilisation while engaging in capitalist behaviour for the benefit of the Church is on par with with the plight of North Korea's citizens and the indulgences of Kim Jong-il.

I don't believe that the EB's pleas to get Union officials off their workplaces is about remaining separated from others. Sue Bradford quoted someone from the EB in her speech in favour of the law (Hat tip: RB):

Separation is maintained from all groups, unions or associations of a business, shareholding, property, political, pleasure, social, medical, or superannuational (sic) nature. We have found in Jesus a satisfaction nothing in this passing world can compare with. Additionally, we are also governed by the scriptures as to employing or being employed. There is special concern to maintain inviolate the direct employer to employee relationship.

Which is to say: our employee's aren't allowed to join unions, which of course would be illegal even for the EB. But for employees of small and medium businesses, it's extremely difficult to join a union. Mostly because unions don't have the resource to bargain collective agreements for a handfull of employees - compare Progressive stores (one company, unions are involved) to Foodstuffs stores (many owner operated companies, little union involvement) .

The EB isn't an organisation that has the betterment of it's members at it's core (see RB again), it's an organisation devoted to power, money and control of it's members. They're not in the politics game to protect their right to practice their religion. They're in it to advance their cult.

Section 24 of the ERA needs to be repealed - not becuase Labour wants to hit back at the EB - but because no group should be exempt from the law because of their beleifs.

marfat et prieur

Today the Supreme Court rejected a vexatious leave to appeal an Appeal Court decision bought by Alain Marfat and Dominique Prieur to prevent TVNZ from screening footage they recorded of the pair pleading guilty to the manslaughter of Fernando Pereira. The Supreme Court in delivering its verdict was very unimpressed in the appeal, summarising that

We have not been satisfied that this is a proper case to be heard by this Court, directed as it is to a discretionary decision which has already been reviewed and confirmed by the Court of Appeal. The decision below turned upon a balancing exercise that involved the application of settled criteria to the particular facts. This is a very unusual case, which, an appeal on the merits having been heard and determined by the Court of Appeal, no longer raises any question of general or public importance. We are satisfied that we would not be assisted on the question of leave by having an oral hearing. We are also far from persuaded that the Courts below have erred in their assessment, let alone that it is arguable that they were plainly wrong.

Which is the correct decision. That someone who has pleaded guilty to manslaughter (and being responsible for the attempted murder of 11 others, not to mention terrorism) can claim any rights to privacy is idiocy. I'd accept their augment if they were innocent - but to commit an act of espionage against a country whose only crime was to allow freedom of expression of its citizens and visitors is reprehensible. The pair - while possibly being only accessories to the crime - served only 2 years out of a 17 year sentence thanks to a UN negotiated release.

They got off light.

The least they can do is stop complaining. Ultimately Marfat or Prieur were not responsible for the decision to attack the Rainbow Warrior, but their Government. Their ludicrous action formed part of our history, and that is the most important reason why we should see those tapes.

The Supreme Court was right in dismissing the leave to appeal, which I feel is an example of the robustness of the newly formed institution. It's fantastic that their cases and decisions are available for anyone who cares to look. To have the Privy Council decide cases of national importance for New Zealand is silly today. I'm glad that they're getting a new building, and pleased that the plans are to create an impressive building to serve as the symbol of the institution as in other countries.

now with even more smut

This has to be the most bizarre month in NZ politics this century. Corruption, corrosion, the Brash affair, Peter Davis possibly kissing another man, Exclusive Brethren and screeds and screeds of nasty comments posted to blogs. It's enough to turn you off politics altogether.

Tonight on Campbell Live, private investigator Wayne Idour reversed his previous assertion that he hadn't been hired by the EB to poke around the Labour party. By proxy, he had - his interview with John Campbell corrected his error. Which wasn't much of a surprise - that the EB are a devious sect with little scruples in trying to sway elections they don't even vote in isn't shocking news to the public.

The interview did have two very interesting revelations though. First, that the EB member who ultimately hired Idour was responsible for leaking information on David Benson-Pope and David Parker. Moreover Idour and other private investigators he was working with have gathered dirt - possibly even evidence of illegal activity - on senior members of the Labour party including Michael Cullen and Helen Clark, in addition to 'information' about Peter Davis.

Secondly, Idour claimed that a "representative or supporter of the Labour Party" (Campbell's words) had instigated a PI to dig dirt on Don Brash and John Key - including rifling through Brash's trash.

I wish I had reason to disbelieve Idour, but it seems unlikely. *sigh* The PM has denied this, of course, but judging from what she said to Russel Brown at the Silver Scrolls on Wednesday I'm not so sure:

I said hello to her as she left.
"Interesting week in politics," I said.
"There's more to come," she said.
I don't doubt it.

Neither do I.

So it's going to get worse before it gets better. If it ever gets better. Nobody has lost their job yet - either from pushing scandal or being the scandal, but I suspect that's what it'll take before it winds up.

Keith Ng has a brilliant interview with Rodney Hide and Russel Norman around the issue. Worth a look.

a few things

So I was going to post a long post, but got caught up transferring to blogger in beta, and only have a few moments before leaving for work. Don't know if it's any good yet, but I'm sure I'll know soon enough.

I did discover that there were comments waiting for moderation that I didn't know about - so I'm not rude - just didn't realise that my settings were wrong (you can now comment without me having to moderate)

In good news, the shop floor workers at Prog's seem to have a decent deal on the table, but the distribution workers remain locked out.

I wasn't impressed by this fuss, but I have to say it was a mistake for Brash to announce that he was having time off. Leaders can't hide in times of crisis, no matter how unfair the crisis is in the first place.

And Brian Rudman is changing his tune about the mega city concept.

one city to rule them all

There is considerable momentum - apparently - among Aucklanders to merge their local bodies into one Super City, able to rival international wonder cities like Brisbane in stature and forward planning. Brian Rudman (or at least his sub-editor) goes as far as saying that the proposal is so good that nobody will have a bad word to say against it. Well yes, you got some, but not others.

Well, for starter's I'm not keen on Secret Plans being hatched by people I didn't get the chance to vote for, let alone the one who I voted against. Secondly, amalgamation isn't something to dream up and go running to the government in order to make it happen - I want to see options, and I want to vote on it. I'm also keenly suspicious that the four old men who hatched the plot didn't take the time to have a chat to their counterparts in the Rodney, Papakura or Franklin districts, let alone talk to the Auckland Regional Council about their ideas.

I'm confident in predicting that the 4-way tryst had come up with one of two bad plans:

#1: Combining Auckland, North Shore, Manakau and Waitakere Cities and leaving the rest up to themselves. Leaving the 3 small councils out in the cold is silly. Rodney and Papakura won't be districts much longer - leaving two small cities latched upon one very large one will create social and infrastructure deficits that will spark the need for further amalgamation down the track. Pitting SuperAuckland against the Auckland Region will also create political headaches, most likely having the City constantly whinge about not needing the hang on regions and wanting to go on it's own.

#2: Put the whole lot together, the four Cities, three Districts and one Region to create BehemothAuckland, dwarfing any local authority in the land, creating a unique system of government that will rival the power of Parliament. Auckland could demand a greter influence over how the Government spends it's money Which, I'm sure National supporters will think a good idea now - but they'd rue the day that a Labour-run BehemothAuckland pits itself against a National Government especially on issues of social policy. It might be good for Auckland - may possibly reverse Auckland's stunnning voter apathy - , but it won't be good for the country to have a a City-State battling the nation constantly.

But my biggest problem is the argument that Auckland can't move forward with the issues with a fragmented local body structure. Firstly, demanding major upheaval in in government because of an inability to sit around and agree isn't a good enough reason. Secondly, having different voices of leadership serving their community isn't a bad thing. If Dick Hubbard and Mike Lee have different opinions on how to do something, the better off we all are. Do your job, talk to each other and find a way forward.

And certainly don't assume that the best way forward is to amalgamate to quash dissention and make decisions in secret.

battle wages on for distribution workers

It's been 11 days since industrial action between Progressive Enterprises their distribution workers started. 11 days without pay, 11 days with no end in sight.

And people are starting to notice their supermarket shelves are starting to empty, which is seeming to be a justifiable hassle rather than massive disruption. For now. It's likely that shoppers tensions will become higher as it becomes impossible to shop at Progs stores. Who shoppers blame in the long run will make or break the worker's demands for a national collective agreement, increased entitlements and an 8% pay rise.

Progressive for it's part is trying to focus attention on what it desribes as

unreasonable union demands [and remaining] committed to the lowest prices possible

in posters throughout the store. The NDU claims that Progs is leading a war of misinformation and acting illegally by replacing the function of their members by getting suppliers that usually deliver their goods via the DC to deliver direct into store. The union received a setback this afternoon, with Employment Court Judge Colgan ruling that PEL can continue with direct to store deliveries until a hearing next week. A press release from the worker's unions the NDU and EMPU this afternoon said:

"The judgment confirms the basic principle of the section that people can not be engaged to do the work of the locked out workers," [NDU National Secretary Laila Harre] said. "The Judge has acknowledged that evidence establishing who engaged who would be difficult for unions to gather in these circumstances. However he commented that with documentary disclosure before the trial the facts will be able to be established with a greater degree of certainty... This employer does not want to negotiate a solution, it wants to win. It wants to win by forcing these workers to accept its demands through the brutal economic weapon of the lockout. The company's Australasian owners are powerful and have shown that they are prepared to invest heavily to get their way. It's time for the rest of us to show that we support the right of low paid workers to bargain and we can do that by making sure their rent is paid and their families are fed."

The union will launch an 0900 number "0900 LOCK OUT" (0900 5625 688) tomorrow morning to enable members of the public to make donations.

It looks like both the union movement is digging it's heels in too. Tony Milne has claim's that Progressive is offering 3%, and a reduction in entitlements, which (as he points out) isn't really a pay rise at all. Worse still, the Manawatu Standard has report's of non union workers being offered a pay raise, while Progressive Enterprises Managing Director claiming on Checkpoint that at least 30 union members have quit the NDU and returned to work on individual contracts, with Harre disputing the figure - only 20 workers crossed the picket line in Palmerston North, returning to work because of financial hardship.

This report cites a Prog's insider in saying that sales were only down 5%, and stock levels down 6%. So I guess there's still plenty of stuff you don't want to buy there.

No Right Turn has ways to punish Prog's, and help the union workers (possibly made redundant by the 0900 number above)

Speaking of misinformation, just to make the whole thing even more confusing the New Zealand Herald is trying it's best to get things wrong. Today:

Foodstuffs managing director Tony McNeil said there had been a slight increase in custom at the group's supermarkets, which include New World and Foodtown.

and yesterday:

A shortage of Coca-Cola and other soft drinks

Even though Coca-Cola has always delivered their soft drinks directly into store. That one ain't the fault of the locked out workers.

pictures from the picket line

Auckland's Burning has some great pictures (more in other posts too) from the picket line of Progressive Enterprises distribution workers lock out.

company blames underpaid workforce for large profit

The sight today at the local Foodtown was one of hundreds of white tickets peppering the aisles reading,

We're sorry your favourite product is out of stock.

Why? According to the full page ad taken by Progressive Enterprises Ltd in today's Herald,

PEL is suspending grocery distribution centre operations indefinitely to ensure the continued supply of grocery products to customers of Foodtown, Woolworths and Countdown supermarkets ... Industrial action at our distribution center's prevents us from supplying our stores with grocery goods via these center's.

Progressive claims that the Union demand for a single agreement for the distribution centre (DC) workers across the Christchurch, Palmerston North and Auckland DC's and an 8% pay rise will bring the multi-billion company to its knees. 500 employees want to be paid the same rate for the same job. 500 out of 18000 NZ employees will make or break this country's food supply.

Progressive's PR offensive continues to say

PEL is seeking urgent mediation to find a fast resolution and to ensure the union demands for less than three per cent of our staff don't threaten the job security of our entire18,000-plus workforce. We are always prepared to negotiate but not until striking staff return to work.

Which is a bit disingenuous. Urgent mediation and negotiation are usually things that happen immediately before strike action is called, not after. Certainly not after suspending staff for taking industrial action, locking out staff, demanding they return to work without changes to their employment conditions.

The union, the National Distribution Workers Union, responded to the newspaper ad with the following:

Progressive rehired the redundant workers on the lower pay (up to $3 less) and conditions (i.e. ending almost all allowances) of the Progressive Shands Rd Supply Chain and ended the Woolworths National Collective Agreement. Workers at Palmerston North retained the pay and allowances of the original national agreement as the company could not find another location for a new distribution centre and therefore could not legally rehire workers on lower
rates.

All this amongst a fantastic corporate (PDF) result for both PEL and its Australian owner Woolworths Australia Limited. The New Zealand operations reported $2.93 billion sales, reported EBIT of $122 million, sales increase of 3.5% in Q3 and 3.8% in Q4. Food inflation was significantly less at 1.5-2%.

The striking workers aren't getting paid at the moment. Donations can be made to the National Distribution Union at the BNZ account 02-0200-0217968-00 with the reference "Lock Out" to give them a hand.

Kiwi Herald also reports on the issue.

out of food

Foodtown Mt Eden had quite bare shelves when I popped in yesterday evening. My immediate thoughts were of slack management, or a high number of sickies. Unfortunately I was wrong.

Progressive Enterprises, the people who bring grocery items to half the country through the Foodtown, Countdown and Woolworth's brands, have locked out their striking distribution workers . Mt Eden store is particularly noticeable, because of it's small storeroom, it requires multiple deliveries of dry goods every day. Other supermarket's will be feeling the pinch soon, as groceries continue to sell and DC's fail to keep up with demand with their union workforce unable to return to work.

The dispute itself is over national pay rates - the union contesting that workers throughout the country should be paid the same for the same job. Prog's, presumably, pays their non-Auckland workers less, because the market pay is less. Working in Auckland is more expensive for two reasons:
- Cost of travel, further to go in most cases.
- Progressive Enterprises prices by region, essentially making Central Auckland the most expensive place to buy groceries in the country.

But that doesn't mean that Palmerston North worker's don't have to travel or buy food.

[Update: I presumed wrong, see next post]

Whatever the result, in the meantime, expect empty supermarket shelves and a PR disaster for Progs.

well, well

More on NZfact spying on kiwis, apparently turning out that their advanced peice of software is none other than a staffer poking around on P2P netowrks, participating in sharing in order to nab IP addresses off traders. Which of course is just as illegal as sharing pirate material for any other reason, most likely entrapment and possibly a breach of the privacy act (if an IP address can be considered personal data, which I do)

[Hat tip: Juha]

slack

So, yes. I've been completely slack with the whole blog thing. Blame Christmas for being just round the corner. No, really - the only break from thinking about it is a few days in September.

The Weekend Herald report on Hollywood Studio's spying on internet traffic to catch P2P users downloading their content is a worry.

The software, developed to hunt movie pirates, can track internet searches in what an international privacy watchdog says is an alarming intrusion. It can trace Google searches and other download attempts back to the computer they came from.

I have two problems with what the Motion Picture Producer's Association of America, via their representative NZfact, is doing. Firstly the concerns over piracy are mind boggling. Juha rightly pointed out that,

...it's hard to see how NZ FACT can obtain the above data without accessing computer systems somehow, or sniffing ISP customers' network traffic. If this is what's happening, is it really legal for NZ FACT and its employees to do so?

I can't actually fathom how this software works without actually being spyware on the systems of search engines or search users, or without cooperation from the likes of Google (very unlikely), or Pirate Bay (yeah, right). But if the software works like it is claimed to, we should be very worried. I'm sure the MPAA will have requests to adapt the software for some very disturbing uses, from the concerning (market research), to the dirty (blackmailing), and worse (electioneering, Church recruitment, identification of gays to hunt down and stone).

My second problem is Hollywood treating the Internet as the problem. Sure people are downloading movies and television programs like there's no tomorrow. Catching the likes of John Mansfield Houston is one thing, but the so called pirates who use P2P are the same people who go to movies and watch network television.

People who see content at the cinema, on television, newspapers, radio and the internet don't care about the revenue of the producers. They really just don't. All they care about is the content. All they gotta do is make it pay, either by pay-per-download, or putting commercials in. Or both. While most users would make the effort to fast forward a 3 minute commercial slot, it wouldn't be worth the effort to fast thru a 5 second iTVC sold to Coke for $10 million. In fact, I'd bet that having free downloads for movies & TV episodes with no more than 30 seconds of commercials per commercial half hour (22 mins or so) would drive people to the movies and get them buying DVDs for the commercial free versions.

So grow up Hollywood.

taking it back

Ok... ok... I was wrong. I take it back.

Telecom still sucks. Yes - I have been throttled by my data cap, but that's no excuse for the speeds I'm getting. Surfing the web now feels like I'm back with my 386 Wang (yes, really) on a 14.4k modem. I'm supposed to get dialup speeds, which means 56k.

So, I wasn't surprised to read that 42 of Telecom's exchanges are at full capacity and they have no intention on upgrading them in a hurry. Excuse me? What kind of arrogant complacency leads a company into not rushing cabinet upgrades in order to increase their customer base. If ever one needed proof that Telecom acts like a monopoly...

how we have changed

Stumbled across a 1997 website that asks why internet advertising doesn't work. It seems strange now that the web was once a place where commerce was struggling, let alone the internet being a place devoid of advertising, but it once was.

The internet now seems to run on advertising, which is I think a good thing. Much like network television, internet advertising - and I'm referring to legitimate internet advertising here - plays it's part in keeping things free. And keeping it free keeps people coming back.

Not that everyone seems to quite be there yet. The Herald insists on seeking a fee to read the latest dross from Deb Coddington, Stuff neglects to place many articles on it's pages, key retailers fail to entice customers into the stores by neglecting to display product information - and those that do keep it light.

We've come a long way with online advertising since 1997 - but we're not done yet.

up your quota

Among all the brouhaha about speeding ticket quotas, nobody is talking solutions. It's inevitable that police will be performance managed, and that part of that performance management will include how many people they catch breaking the law. And, let's face it, that's a good thing.

But there is a way to evade police tickets, undermining any targets or quotas in the interim. It won't be easy, but it'll work. A massive campaign of civil obedience that will free up police time to spend on other crimes, save people money and save lives.

How?

Everyone should stop breaking the law.

buy nz made - before it's all gone

I had a chance to speak to a local manufacturer today who sells into both Australian and New Zealand supermarket chains. His experience of late has confirmed what many had fared about the buyout of Progressive Enterprises by Woolworths Australia - that NZ based suppliers are fucked. In an environment where the price grocery retailers pay for their goods have remained relatively static, suppliers here are now forced to match terms with Australian products or lose access to supermarket shelves. In theory, there's opportunity for NZ suppliers to gain access to Australia, but the reality is that the margins they get from NZ supermarkets is low, and a lack of cashflow for the smaller suppliers to invest in equipment to be able to ramp their output serving four million people to output serving six times that number makes quick expansion impossible. The same lack of liquidity prevents manufacturers from acquiring horizontally - meaning business that are in trouble simply disappear, rather than being bought by another NZ operation.

All the while, the Woolworth's Australia has made a very nice profit, reporting in the latest half year that
- EBIT was up by 31.5% to $A902.4 million.
- Supermarket (Oz&NZ) sales up $A2.4 billion to $A16 billion.
- NZ Supermarket sales up 4.3%
- Food inflation was 1.5-2%

The cost of doing business was also down (read: squeezing suppliers), with

80% of these cost savings were reinvested in gross margin with the balance going to increase EBIT margin.

(PDF here)

So we - the consumer - is left with little choice in what we buy, even if we are swayed by the Green's Buy NZ Made Campaign. It's starting already - you may have noticed your favorite Basics product replaced with the Oz made home brand. Little wonder we're flocking to Australia, pretty soon we'll be left without any food.

down the line

So Telecom is planning to dance with the regulators, which on the face of it is good news. But it probably wont be. This is the same Telecom that has defied regulators in the past. It's the same Telecom that misrepresents its services (are you paying less for Telecom broadband?). Don't hold your breath on this one. Yes, they have promised transparency within it's operations. And they've promised a level playing field. But Telecom can and will find ways to confuse. Price gouging on mobile-land packages are an obvious risk. We really do need a proper new business to operate Telecom's wholesale business, including wireless.

bad with the good

It's only fair, if I'm slagging someone off, to point out when things get better. It wasn't long ago in the fair suburb of Mt Eden, when Telecom's DSL service was extremely oversubscribed - leaving us serfs with seriously lacking broadband. But now, I feel like I'm actually getting bang for my buck - large downloads clocking in at over 180kbs. Sure, I'm not getting the 3mbs Telecom insists is theoretically possible and, fine, it slows down my browsing, but I'm much happier now with my download speed than I was before. If only they'd get rid of those nasty download caps.

Meanwhile, I've had a chance to have a play with Google Spreadsheets properly. They haven't, as hyped, got it all down - no charts, macros or anything Excel has in the Data menu. But it works fine enough - and considering it's still a 'labs' project, it's sure to add all the whistles and bells soon enough. They've got rid of the limited trial too, it seems - only needing a google account to sign up.

gale force fraud

The US Federal Emergency Management Agency has paid over $US1 billion in fraudulent claims. It's unbelievable how low some people will sink, and little wonder New Orleans hasn't got back on its feet at a faster pace. Shame on the fraudsters, shame on FEMA.

good news everybody

Finally, an announcement on Digital TV. Which is good news, a workable model that ensures we don't fall behind the world in broadcast television. Freeview, the platform name of the service, will be delivered to our homes via satellite and/or terrestrial transmission. We will need a set top box, however - but on the plus side, up to 18 channels!

Nat MP Georgina te Heuheu couldn't resist a moan though, blasting the government for not providing details such as how much the set top box will cost or how much taxpayer money will go into the service. Which are good questions, just a shame that the government answered them an hour before te Heuheu asked. The cost to customers is approx $200 and the maximum taxpayers will pay is $25 million. Sure, Broadcasting Minister Steve Mahery didn't give the exact retail price - but it's still a year off, and one would expect the government to thoroughly explore different suppliers of set top boxes to get the best price and features before setting the retail cost.

The government released a FAQ around Freeview which does into more detail, while the Greens had warnings about the dilution of NZ content.

easter trading

In his post on Easter trading hours, DPF suggested removing all trading hours upon retailers, above and beyond two private member's bills to allow Easter Trading for tourist towns- one from Labour's Steve Chadwick the other from National's Jacqui Dean. The law, as it currently stands, allows only essential services and garden centres to open on Good Friday and Easter Sunday, and essential services only on Anzac Day and Christmas Day.

Nobody cares about not bing able to trade Christmas Day, nobody would turn up to buy anything. On Anzac Day shoppers simply delay their dollars to later in the afternoon, besides it's the only one of these holidays that has firm roots in NZ - allowing trading is a risky move politically.

But everyone is on holiday over Easter. It's generally fair weather, and people are off work for 4 days desperate to do things. Retailers want to cash in - and fair enough. The only problem is that Easter Sunday isn't a public holiday. Nobody's entitled to time-and-a-half. No day in lieu if you work on Easter Sunday. Employers - some garden centres are an example - may choose to give these benefits.

The options for the government are:
- The status quo
- Allow trade on Easter Sunday, making it like an ordinary Sunday. This would upset a lot of Retail workers, missing a day off.
- Allow trade on Easter Sunday and make it a public holiday.

The problem with the latter options is that it adds a public holiday that most worker's won't get. It could be a public holiday for all, with it transferring to Tuesday if you don't work on Sunday - but most employers wont be keen on that.

Whatever the outcome - the nobody-works-on-Sunday hangover we have in our legislation is outdated and needs to reflect the real world. It also needs to reward workers with time off for working over 4 day weekend - meaning time and a half and a day in lieu for Easter Sunday.

(Updated: 15 Oct 06(!). Links to DPF and Shop Trading Hours Act corrected)

to be in the city

As always, something that went wrong in Auckland was blamed on the RMA, which as the PM points out isn't fair. It's also not fair to place incredibly large power pylons near peoples homes, no matter how rich they are. I live nowhere near South Auckland, but every time I drive along the southern motorway, I see the massive plylons flanking residential houses and - after I'm over the shock of their ugliness - wonder about cancer rates in those areas, and others near pylons and substations. I agree that we need to spend money, but let's not blame the RMA on doing what it was supposed to do - protect the citizens of this country from harm. I'm sure if the government was to decide the quickest and cheapest way to ensure power supply into Auckland's CBD was to plonk 100KV lines through Remuera, those braying over the last few day's wouldn't be happy.

Though all of this, I had the misfortune to both be subject to diving without traffic lights, and a full days work - the power was still on in the North Shore. Relief, however, came when the generators went down at the company that hosts all of our data (that is, public drives and network applications reliant on databases) , there was nothing to do but surf the net, despite DSL being down in parts of the city with power.

shopping nightmare

I've decided to stay well away from Sylvia Park this weekend - preferring hell to be involved chaos similar to Thursday's opening. Picked up a few stories from people working there on the day, including hair pulling, fisticuffs and people stealing hot deals from other customer's trolleys. And that was all before the $49 TV's sold out 7 minutes after opening the doors. Even more bizarre than Nat MP Maurice Williamson blaming the traffic chaos on Labour, was a very senior Progressive Enterprises (Owner of Foodtown) employee vandalising a display in the front of the Warehouse and having to be calmed down by Warehouse founder Steven Tindall. Foodtown, apparently, wasn't doing very well during the morning in comparison to the Warehouse.

employment relations

In the last few days there has been a solid push against current employment law from the right. The Herald Wednesday lead with a Tauranga employer feeling aggrieved at a Employment Relations Authority decision against him, alongside a Employers & Manufactures Association (EMA) survey reporting that employment grievances are on the rise. The article gave Nat MP Wayne Mapp a chance to plug his 90-day worker probation bill (currently before Parliament), endorsed by the EMA in it's press release

The figures add solid support for the type of probationary period of employment currently before Parliament.

$2400 is a lot of money to have to shell out, especially considering the sacked worker Daniel Paterson wasn't a very good employee. But, he wasn't fired for anything the Herald implied with the headline

$2400 worker's payout for filthy graffiti.

He was fired for being late. Specifically, he was fired for being late once. Paterson was probably tardy more than that, but his boss Bruce Debenham didn't give Paterson adequate notice that he was close to being dismissed. On Thursday, he admitted that he did things badly in the Herald.

Further whining from the EMA here, claiming Labour's 2004 employment law amendment is unfair because New Zealand has more than one Judge deciding on employment matters. Sorry? That logic wouldn't get far in a murder case. This case involved a Air New Zealand Employee who was given warnings in 2002 and 2003, once for a fracas with another staff member, another time for getting snotty with customers (details of which Air NZ was unable to provide). Then she was given a promotion. Then she was fired 14 months after her last warning (PDF, page 61). The Employment Relations Authority(ERA) decision was appealed to the Employment Court by Air New Zealand The reason the EMA was upset was because presiding Judge Coral Shaw reaffirmed the ERA's assertion that Air New Zealand's actions were

not what a fair and reasonable employer would have done in the circumstances

I don't think it's too much to expect that of employers, and if the opposite - unfair and unreasonable - was to be committed to policy, it'd be laughed down.

There are some truly shocking workers out there, and most of them get moved on quickly by savvy employers. It's not hard to get rid of a truly bad employee, provided you put everything down on paper. Five sheets of paper to print out a customised employment agreement from the Dept of Labour, and another six to warn and fire the employee. Total cost 10 cents, if you're using the posh stuff.

That, and being fair.

google takes aim

Google has 'made available' to the public it's answer to Microsoft Excel, Google Spreadsheets. judging from the screenshots, and news from the unofficial Google Blog, it looks like it could challenge Excel easily. If it can process macros, I'm sure they will have a complete set of formulas by the time they go alpha.

Which nearly makes a Google Office Suite complete, with mail, calendar, and word processing already in the picture. It won't take much to allow Writely to create presentations, the business world desperately needs an alternative to Powerpoint.

The major plus for all users is the price, can't get better than free, and freedom from the hassles of upgrades and add-ins, especially when sending the file to other users.

While Google now has the wherewithal to go for the jugular in the home user market, small and large enterprises may find Microsoft their only option. Technical support is one major issue, as is security. Web versions of MS Publisher and Access will be interesting at best, although challenging the under-used Infopath considering the expense to license every user could be a goer.